Abstracts
Résumé
Le cycle des élections présidentielles états-uniennes de 2024 a été sans précédent à bien des égards. De la prévisibilité des électeurs aux apparitions médiatiques des candidats et à l’opinion publique sur des questions sociopolitiques urgentes, cet essai examine les événements et les stratégies électorales qui ont rendu ce cycle particulièrement turbulent et différent de ceux qui l’ont précédé.
Mots-clés :
- Campagne électorale,
- Campagne présidentielle,
- Candidat à la présidence,
- Candidate à la présidence,
- Candidats à la présidence,
- Candidates à la présidence,
- Donald Trump,
- Élection,
- Élections présidentielles 2024,
- États-Unis,
- Kamala Harris,
- Parti démocrate,
- Parti politique,
- Parti républicain,
- Partisan,
- Politique,
- Président,
- Vote
Abstract
The 2024 United States presidential election cycle has been unprecedented in many aspects. From voter predictability to media presence and public opinion on pressing sociopolitical issues, this essay examines the events and campaign strategies that have made this cycle especially turbulent and different from those that came before it.
Keywords:
- 2024 presidential elections,
- Democratic,
- Donald Trump,
- Election,
- Electoral campaign,
- Kamala Harris,
- Partisan,
- Political party,
- Politics,
- President,
- Presidential campaign,
- Presidential candidate,
- Republican,
- United States,
- Vote
Appendices
Bibliographie
- Abramowitz, Alan I., et Steven W. Webster. 2018. « Negative Partisanship: Why Americans Dislike Parties But Behave Like Rabid Partisans ». Political Psychology 39 (S1):119‑35. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12479.
- Bennett, Stephen Earl, Richard S. Flickinger, John R. Baker, Staci L. Rhine, et Linda L. M. Bennett. 1996. « Citizens’ Knowledge of Foreign Affairs ». Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics 1 (2):10‑29. https://doi.org/10.1177/1081180X96001002003.
- Blake, Aaron. 2024. « How Kamala Harris’s Media Blitz Went ». The Washington Post, octobre. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/09/campaign-moment/.
- Bon, Joshua J., Timothy Ballard, et Bernard Baffour. 2019. « Polling Bias and Undecided Voter Allocations: US Presidential Elections, 2004–2016 ». Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society 182 (2):467‑93. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12414.
- Bouton, Laurent, Paola Conconi, Francisco Pino, et Maurizio Zanardi. 2018. « Guns, Environment and Abortion: How Single-Minded Voters Shape Politicians Decisions ». Center for Economic Performance.
- Brewer, Mark D. 2005. « The Rise of Partisanship and the Expansion of Partisan Conflict within the American Electorate ». Political Research Quarterly 58 (2):219‑29. https://doi.org/10.1177/106591290505800203.
- Brownstein, Ronald. 2024. « Analysis: The Unusual Turnout Dynamic That Could Decide the 2024 Election ». CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/29/politics/turnout-2024-election-analysis/index.html.
- Bustillo, Ximena, Jaclyn Diaz, Carrie Johnson, Domenico Montanaro, Emily Olson, Franco Ordonez, et Leigh Warden. s. d. « Donald Trump Indicted on Four Counts in 2020 Election Probe: Live Updates ». NPR. Consulté le 24 octobre 2024. https://www.npr.org/live-updates/trump-grand-jury-indictment-jan-6.
- Cheng, Shelley, Humera Lodhi, et Maya Sweedler. s. d. « What Americans Are Searching for about the 2024 Election ». AP NEWS. https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/google-trends/.
- Cox, Gary W. 1997. Making votes count: strategic coordination in the world’s electoral systems. Political economy of institutions et decisions. Cambridge, U.K. ; New York: Cambridge University Press.
- « Democratic Primary Election 2024: Live Results ». 2024. The Wall Street Journal, juin. https://www.wsj.com/election/2024/primary/democratic.
- Dhruv, Khullar. 2024. « Doctors Are Increasingly Worried About Biden ». The New Yorker, juillet.
- « Donald Trump: Favorability Polls. » 2018. FiveThirtyEight, juin. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/.
- Dovere, Edward-Isaac. 2024. « A Jittery Harris Campaign Makes Big Plans to Clinch a Narrow Win ». CNN, octobre. https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/22/politics/kamala-harris-campaign-final-weeks/index.html.
- Druckman, James N, et Matthew S Levendusky. 2019. « What Do We Measure When We Measure Affective Polarization? » Public Opinion Quarterly 83 (1):114‑22. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfz003.
- Easly, Cameron. 2024. « Tim Walz’s Favorability Rating Climbs as His Name Recognition Skyrocket ». Morning Consult Pro. https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/tim-walz-favorability-ratings.
- Eddy, Kristen. 2024. « More than Half of Americans Are Following Election News Closely, and Many Are Already Worn Out ». Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/05/28/more-than-half-of-americans-are-following-election-news-closely-and-many-are-already-worn-out/.
- Frey, William H. 2023. « New Voter Turnout Data from 2022 Shows Some Surprises, Including Lower Turnout for Youth, Women, and Black Americans in Some States ». Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-voter-turnout-data-from-2022-shows-some-surprises-including-lower-turnout-for-youth-women-and-black-americans-in-some-states/.
- Gallup Inc. 2024. « Economy Most Important Issue to 2024 Presidential Vote ». Gallup.com. https://news.gallup.com/poll/651719/economy-important-issue-2024-presidential-vote.aspx.
- Garber, Megan. 2022. « The Great Fracturing of American Attention ». The Atlantic, mars. https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2022/03/americans-focus-attention-span-threat-democracy/626556/.
- Graham, Matthew H., et Milan W. Svolik. 2020. « Democracy in America? Partisanship, Polarization, and the Robustness of Support for Democracy in the United States ». American Political Science Review 114 (2):392‑409. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420000052.
- Green, Hannah Hartig, Andrew Daniller, Scott Keeter, et Ted Van. 2023. « Voting Patterns in the 2022 Elections ». Pew Research Center, juillet. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/.
- Harder, Joshua, et Jon A. Krosnick. 2008. « Why Do People Vote? A Psychological Analysis of the Causes of Voter Turnout ». Journal of Social Issues 64 (3):525‑49. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-4560.2008.00576.x.
- Heffington, Colton. 2016. « Do Hawks and Doves Deliver? The Words and Deeds of Foreign Policy in Democracies ». Foreign Policy Analysis, juin, orw011. https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orw011.
- Henriques, Stephen, et Jeffrey Sonnenfeld. 2024. « We Need to Stop Paying Attention to “Undecided” Voters ». TIME. https://time.com/7086121/undecided-swing-voters-polls/.
- Holsti, Ole R. 1992. « Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Challenges to the Almond-Lippmann Consensus Mershon Series: Research Programs and Debates ». International Studies Quarterly 36 (4):439. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600734.
- « Kamala Harris : Favorability Polls ». 2018. FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/.
- Kertzer, Joshua D., et Thomas Zeitzoff. 2017. « A Bottom‐Up Theory of Public Opinion about Foreign Policy ». American Journal of Political Science 61 (3):543‑58. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12314.
- Kurtzleben, Danielle. 2024. « How Trump and Vance’s Tour of Dude Influencers Might Help Them Win ». NPR, septembre.
- Martínez, Alonso. 2024. « Compare the Presidential Candidates’ Policy Platforms ». EL PAÍS English. https://english.elpais.com/usa/elections/2024-10-17/compare-the-presidential-candidates-policy-platforms.html.
- Montanaro, Domenico. 2024. « 10 Undecided Voters Explain Why They Haven’t Picked a Side in This Election ». NPR, septembre.
- Morris-Grant, Brianna. 2024. « The Last Time a President Decided Not to Run for Re-Election, the Streets of Chicago Descended into Chaos ». ABC News, juillet.
- Myre, Greg. 2015. « Taking U.S. Politics Beyond ‘The Water’s Edge ». NPR, mars.
- « National : President: General Election : 2024 Polls ». 2018. FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/.
- Orr, Gaby, et Andrew Restuccia. 2019. « How Stephen Miller Made Immigration Personal ». POLITICO. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/22/stephen-miller-immigration-trump-1284287.
- Pew Research Center. 2015. « A Deep Dive Into Party Affiliation ». Pew Research Center.
- Plane, Dennis L., et Joseph Gershtenson. 2004. « Candidates’ Ideological Locations, Abstention, and Turnout in U.S. Midterm Senate Elections ». Political Behavior 26 (1):69‑93. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:POBE.0000022344.05382.b4.
- Schaffner, Brian, et Caroline Soler. 2024. « Will Undecided Voters Ultimately Decide the Next U.S. President ». Good Authority, octobre. https://goodauthority.org/news/undecided-voters-2024-harris-trump-research-nov2024-election/.
- Schneider, Aliya. 2024. « Pro-Palestinian Activists Threatened to Withhold Votes in Philly Just Before Kamala Harris Talked about Gaza at CNN’s Town Hall in Delco ». Inquirer. https://www.inquirer.com/politics/philadelphia/israel-palestinian-ceasefire-protesters-voting-20241024.html.
- Silver, Laura, Christine Huang, Laura Clancy, Aidan Connaughton, et Sneha Gubbala. 2022. « What Do Americans Know About International Affairs? » Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/05/25/what-do-americans-know-about-international-affairs/.
- Silver, Nate. 2017. « The Invisible Undecided Voter ». FiveThirtyEight.
- Silver, Nate. 2024. « Likability Isn’t Enough », octobre. https://www.natesilver.net/p/likability-isnt-enough.
- Steele, Anne, et Nate Rattner. 2024. « Harris and Trump’s Media Blitz, in Charts ». The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-harris-tv-podcast-media-appearances-2024-election-951ba95c.
- Stone, Walter J., et Elizabeth N. Simas. 2010. « Candidate Valence and Ideological Positions in U.S. House Elections ». American Journal of Political Science 54 (2):371‑88. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00436.x.
- « The First Woman To Run For President: Victoria Woodhull ». 2021. U.S. National Park Service. https://www.nps.gov/articles/the-first-woman-to-run-for-president-victoria-woodhull.htm.
- « US Primary Results 2024 ». 2024. Reuters, janvier.