Résumés
Résumé
Le contexte de prise de décision est entaché par des biais cognitifs. Se basant sur un échantillon de 46 entreprises tunisiennes cotées durant 1997-2006, nous avons d’abord observé l’influence de trois biais (sur-confiance, mimétisme et illusion de contrôle) sur la perception du risque et ensuite, nous avons analysé la relation entre cette perception et la prise de risque effective. Nos résultats concluent à l’existence d’une relation positive entre le biais de sur-confiance et de mimétisme et la prise de risque et à une relation négative entre le biais de l’illusion de contrôle et la prise de risque managériale.
Mots clés:
- Biais cognitifs,
- Prise de risque managériale,
- analyse factorielle,
- régression logistique
Abstract
In this article, we analyse three cognitive biases which are overconfidence, illusion of control and herding. We investigate whether theses cognitive biases have an impact on managerial risk-taking. Using a sample of 46 Tunisian firms during the period 1997-2006, we put on evidence that a positive association exists between overconfidence, herding and managerial risk-taking. Nevertheless, the illusion of control bias has a negative impact on the proportion of Tunisian managers to take risks.
Keywords:
- decision making,
- cognitive biases,
- managerial risk-taking
Resumen
Basándose en una muestra compuesta de 46 empresas tunecinas numeradas durante 1997-2006, procedimos en dos etapas: inicialmente, observamos la influencia de estas tres inclinaciones sobre la percepción del riesgo y en un segundo momento, analizamos la relación entre esta percepción y la toma de riesgo efectiva. Este planteamiento nos permitió concluir a la existencia de una relación positiva entre la inclinación de sobre confianza y la inclinación de mimetismo y la toma de riesgo y a una relación negativa entre la inclinación de la ilusión de control y la toma de riesgo de gestión.
Palabras claves:
- Inclinaciones cognoscitivas,
- Toma de riesgo de gestión,
- análisis de los factores,
- regresión logística
Parties annexes
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