Résumés
Résumé
Depuis 1990, la Russie a été un acteur important du projet de mondialisation du marché pétrolier et du marché gazier. Exportatrice majeure, elle a progressivement dessiné une réforme de ses industries d’hydrocarbures lui permettant tout à la fois de maintenir cette position, mais aussi d’influer sur la dynamique de la concurrence internationale. Toutefois, la guerre en Ukraine modifie en profondeur les modalités d’intégration de la Russie sur ces marchés internationaux – jusqu’à modifier son rôle mais aussi les caractéristiques mêmes de sa réforme ? On commence à percevoir les implications pour les marchés internationaux des nouveaux rapports énergétiques internationaux nés de la guerre en Ukraine. Et celles-ci s’avèrent déjà fortement différenciées pour le pétrole et le gaz.
Mots-clés :
- marchés internationaux d’hydrocarbures,
- Russie,
- prix du pétrole et du gaz
Abstract
Since 1990, Russia has been a major player in the globalisation of the oil and gas markets. As a major exporter, it has gradually reformed its hydrocarbon industries, enabling it both to maintain this position and to define strategies enabling it to influence international prices. However, the war in Ukraine is profoundly changing the way Russia integrates into these international markets. Will this change not only its role, but also the very characteristics of its reform ? We are beginning to see the implications for international markets of the new international energy relationships created by the war in Ukraine. These are already very different for oil and gas.
Keywords:
- international hydrocarbon markets,
- Russia,
- international prices (oil and natural gas)
Parties annexes
Références
- ABBAS, Mehdi et Catherine LOCATELLI, 2022, « L’interdépendance énergétique Chine-Russie et l’hybridation des institutions de gouvernance des marchés internationaux des hydrocarbures », Études internationales, vol. LIII, no 2 : 209-234.
- ABBAS Mehdi et Catherine LOCATELLI, 2020, « National institutional systems’ hybridization through interdependence », Post Communist Economies, vol. 32, no 4 : 429-446.
- AL-KASIM Farouk, 2006, Managing Petroleum Resources: The Norwegian Model in a Broad Perspective, Oxford, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
- BP, 2022, Statistical Review of World Energy. Consulté sur Internet (www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf), le 24 mai 2023.
- CORBEAU Anne-Sophie et Tatiana MITROVA, 2024, « Russia’s gas export strategy: Adapting to the new reality », Center on Global Energy Policy, SIPA, Columbia University.
- BORDOFF Jason et Meghan O’SULLIVAN, 2023, « The Age of energy insecurity : How the fights for resources is upending geopolitics », Foreign Affairs, vol. 102, no 3 : 104-119.
- BOUSSENA Sadek et Catherine LOCATELLI, 2024, Le gaz et la guerre en Ukraine. Où va le marché international ? Paris, L’Harmattan.
- BOUSSENA Sadek et Catherine LOCATELLI, 2017, « Gazprom and the complexity of the EU gas market : A strategy to define », Post Communist Economies, vol. 29, no 4 : 549-564.
- DE GRAAF Nana (2011), « A global energy network ? The expansion and integration of non-triad national oil companies », Global networks, vol. 11, no 2 : 262-283.
- FARRELL Henry et Abraham L. NEWMAN, 2019, « Weaponized interdependance : How global economic networks shape State coercion », International Security, vol. 44, no 1 : 42-79.
- FATTOUH Bassam et Andreas ECONOMOU, 2024, « Transformations in oil markets : Features and implications », OIES Energy Comment, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
- FATTOUH Bassam et Andreas ECONOMOU, 2023, « Oil relations and the balance of power between the Big-3 oil producers : Transformation and impacts », OIES Energy Comment, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
- FJAERTOFT Daniel et Lars Peter LUNDEN, 2015, « Russian petroleum tax policy – Continuous maneuvering in rocky waters », Energy Policy, vol. 87 : 553-561.
- HENDERSON James, Vitali YERMAKOV et Richard CONNOLLY, 2024, « Outlook for Russia’s oil and gas production and exports », OIES, paper NG 189, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
- HENDERSON James et Arild MOE, 2019, The Globalization of Russian Gas: Political and Commercial Catalysts, Cheltham, Edward Elgar.
- HERRANZ-SURRALLES Anna, 2020, « The energy charter treaty: Old and new dilemmas in global energy governance », dans Michel KNODT et Jörg KEMMERZEL, Handbook of Energy Governance in Europe, Berlin, Springer : 347-365.
- JONES LUONG Pauline et Erika WEINTHAL, 2010, Oil Is Not a Curse : Ownership Structure and Institutions in Soviet Successor States, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
- KRYUKOV Valeriy et Arild MOE, 2017, « Russia’s oil industry : Risk aversion in a risk-prone environment », Eurasian Geography and Economics, vol. 48, no 3 : 341-357.
- LARYS Martin, 2024, « Russia’s potential for weaponization of gas supplies after the re-invasion of Ukraine », Energy Policy, vol. 191. Consulté sur Internet (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114195) le 12 janvier 2025.
- LIU Dawei et Hang XU, 2021, « A rational policy decision or political deal? A multiple streams’ examination of the Russia-China natural gas pipeline », Energy Policy, no 148 : 148-159.
- LOSMAN Donald, 2010, « The rentier State and national oil companies », The Middle East Journal, vol. 63, no 3 : 427-445.
- LUND Diderik, 2014, « State participation and taxation in Norwegian petroleum: Lessons for others ? », Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 3 : 49-54.
- MECKLING Jonas, Bo KONG et Tanvi MADAN, 2015, « Oil and state capitalism: Government-firm coopetition in China and India », Review of International Political Economy, vol. 22, no 6 : 1159-1187.
- MOMMER Bernard, 2023, Ressources naturelles et mondialisation. Le pétrole et le Venezuela, Paris, L’Harmattan.
- NORENG Øystein, 2022, The Oil Business and the State : National Energy Companies and Government Ownership, New York, Routledge.
- NORENG Øystein, 2010, « Brazil and Norway: Offshore petroleum experiences and lessons », Journal of Energy and Development, vol. 35, nos 1-2 : 79-99.
- OHENE-ASARE Kwaku, Charles TUKSON et Anthony AFFUL-DADZIE, 2017, « Multinational operation, ownership and efficiency differences in the international oil industry », Energy Economics, vol. 68 : 303-312.
- PETROLEUM INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY, 2024a, « Can Russia sustain robust oil exports? », Energy Intelligence, 4 janvier.
- PETROLEUM INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY, 2024b, « Budget shows Russia resilience to sanction », Energy Intelligence, 18 janvier.
- PETROLEUM INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY, 2023, « Ukraine war fractures oil market order », Energy Intelligence, 16 février.
- RAMIREZ-CENDRERO Juan M. et Maria J. PAZ, 2017, « Oil fiscal regimes and national oil companies : A comparison between Pemex and Petrobras », Energy Policy, vol. 101 : 473-483.
- ROSSIAUD Sylvain, 2015, « L’ouverture de l’amont pétrolier à des compagnies privées. Un cadre d’analyse en termes d’économie des coûts de transaction », Revue d’économie industrielle, no 150 : 111-141.
- SAKWA Richard, 2022, « Russia : oil and revisionist power », dans Wojcieck OSTROWSKI et Rolland DANNREUTHER (dir.), Oil and International Relations, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar : 129-41.
- SARBU Bianca, 2014, Ownership and Control of Oil : Explaining Policy Choices across Producing Countries, London et New York, Routledge.
- SINGH Jewellord Nem et Geoffrey CHEN, 2017, « State-owned enterprises and the political economy of State-State relations in the developing world », Third World Quarterly, vol. 39 : 1077-1097.
- STEVENS Paul, 2008, « National oil companies and international oil companies in the Middle East : Under the shadow of government and the resource nationalism cycle », Journal of World Energy Law & business, vol. 1, no 1 : 5-30.
- THURBER Mark C., David R. HULTS et Patrick HELLER, 2011, « Exporting the “Norwegian Model”: The effect of administrative design on oil sector performance », Energy Policy, vol. 39, no 9 : 5366-5378.
- VATANSEVER Adnan, 2020, « Taxing the Golden Goose: Reforming taxation of the oil sector in Putin’s Russia », Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 70, no 10 : 1703-1727.
- VICTOR David, David HULTS et Mark THURBER, 2012, « Major conclusions and implications for the future of the oil industry », dans David VICTOR, David HULTS et Mark THURBER, Oil and Governance: State-Owned Enterprises and the World Energy Supply, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press : 887-928.
- WÄLDE Thomas, 2008, « Renegotiating acquired rights in the oil and gaz industries: Industry and political cycles meet the rule of law », Journal of World Energy Law & Business, vol. 1, no 1 : 55-97.
- YERMAKOV Vitaly, 2023, « Russian oil output increases in 2022 amid unprecedented Western sanctions : What’s next? », Energy Insight, no 132, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
- YERMAKOV Vitaly et James HENDERSON, 2020, « The New Deal for oil markets: Implications for Russia’s short-term tactics and long term strategy », Energy insight, no 67, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
10.7202/1109200ar