Résumés
Résumé
La récidive criminelle chez les adolescents auteurs de crimes à caractère sexuel (AACS) représente un sujet controversé. De récentes recherches suggèrent que leurs taux de récidive sexuelle sont en baisse, ce qui contraste avec la perception du risque de récidive sexuelle entretenue par les décideurs politiques, certains praticiens et le public depuis les années 1990. Ce constat remet en question cette croyance que les AACS se caractérisent par une trajectoire de délinquance sexuelle répétée et persistante à l'âge adulte. La présente étude consiste en une méta-analyse quantitative visant à déterminer les taux de récidive générale et sexuelle des AACS à l'aide de données provenant de 158 études publiées sur la scène internationale entre 1940 et 2019. Les résultats indiquent que si le risque de récidive générale est à la baisse depuis quelques années, le taux de récidive sexuelle et bas et stable depuis le début de la recherche sur la question. Ces constats suggèrent que les stratégies importées du système pour adultes dans une optique de sécurité du public et de prévention de la récidive sexuelle ne sont pas adéquates, remettant en question les modèles d'intervention axés sur la prévention de la récidive sexuelle chez les AACS.
Mots-clés :
- adolescence,
- recherche longitudinale,
- méta-analyse,
- délinquance sexuelle,
- récidive
Abstract
Criminal recidivism among adolescents who have a history of sexual offending (ASO) represents a contentious subject. Recent studies suggest that their rates of sexual recidivism are in decline, which contrasts with the perception of the public, policymakers, and professionals in terms of the risk this population present. This raises questions regarding the response from the juvenile justice system, which tends to rely on the assumption that all ASO are at risk to become adult sexual offenders. The current study consists of a meta-analysis aiming at determining rates of general and sexual recidivism of ASO while using data from international studies between 1940 and 2019 (k = 158). Results show that the risk of general recidivism has been declining in recent years, whereas the risk of sexual recidivism has remained low since the onset of this line of research. These observations suggest that using community protection strategies developed for adults to intervene with ASO is not appropriate. Not only sexual recidivism among ASO represents a rare phenomenon, these strategies are also not adapted to meet the general criminogenic needs of this population of adolescents.
Keywords:
- adolescence,
- meta-analysis,
- longitudinal research,
- recidivism,
- sexual offending
Parties annexes
Bibliographie
- Abel, G., Osborn, C., & Twigg, D. (1993). Sexual assault through the life span: Adult offenders with juvenile histories. Barbaree, H.E., Marshall, W.L., & Hudson, S.M. (Eds.), The juvenile sex offender (p. 104-117). New York: Guilford.
- Atcheson, J. D., & Williams, D. C. (1954). A study of juvenile sex offenders. American Journal of Psychiatry, 111(5), 366-370. https://doi.org/10.1176/ajp.111.5.366
- Awad, G. A., Saunders, E., & Levene, J. (1984). A clinical study of male adolescent sexual offenders. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 28(2), 105-116.
- Barbaree, H. (1997). Evaluating treatment efficacy with sexual offenders: The insensitivity of recidivism studies to treatment effects. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 9(2), 111-128. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02674862
- Barbaree, H. E., Hudson, S. M., & Seto, M. C. (1993). Sexual assault in society: The role of the juvenile offender. Guilford Press.
- Barendregt, J. J., Doi, S. A., Lee, Y. Y., Norman, R. E., & Vos, T. (2013). Meta-analysis of prevalence. Journal of Epidemiology Community Health, 67(11), 974-978. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2013-203104
- Barra, S., Bessler, C., Landolt, M. A., & Aebi, M. (2018). Testing the validity of criminal risk assessment tools in sexually abusive youth. Psychological Assessment, 30(11), 1430-1443. https://doi.org/10.1037/pas0000590
- Becker, J. V., & Kavoussi, R. J. (1989). Diagnosis and treatment of juvenile sex offenders. In Juvenile psychiatry and the law (pp. 133-143). Springer, Boston, MA.
- Becker, J. V., Harris, C. D., & Sales, B. D. (1993). Juveniles who commit sexual offenses: A critical review of research. Hall, G.C.N., Hirschman, R., Graham, J.R., & Zaragoza, M.S. (eds), Sexual Aggression: Issues in etiology, assessment, and treatment (pp. 215-228). Taylor & Francis.
- Bennett, W. J., & DiIulio, J. J. (1996). Body count: Moral poverty and how to win America's war against crime and drugs. Simon & Schuster.
- Blumstein, A., & Moitra, S. (1980). The identification of “career criminals” from “chronic offenders” in a cohort. Law & Policy, 2(3), 321-334. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9930.1980.tb00219.x
- Blumstein, A., Farrington, D. P., & Moitra, S. (1985). Delinquency careers: Innocents, desisters, and persisters. Crime and Justice, 6, 187-219.
- Blumstein, A., & Farrington, D. (2000). The crime drop in America (p. 13-44). A. Blumstein, & J. Wallman (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Brownlie, J. (2003). ‘An unsolvable justice problem’? Punishing young people's sexual violence. Journal of Law and Society, 30(4), 506-531. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6478.2003.00268.x
- Caldwell, M. F. (2002). What we do not know about juvenile sexual reoffense risk. Child Maltreatment, 7(4), 291-302. https://doi.org/10.1177/107755902237260
- Caldwell, M. F. (2010). Study characteristics and recidivism base rates in juvenile sex offender recidivism. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 54(2), 197-212. Doi: 10.1177/0306624X08330016
- Caldwell, M. F. (2016). Quantifying the decline in juvenile sexual recidivism rates. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 22(4), 414-426. https://doi.org/10.1037/law0000094
- Carpentier, J., & Proulx, J. (2021). Recidivism rates of treated, non-treated and dropout adolescent who have sexually offended: A non-randomized study. Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 757242. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.757242
- Chaffin, M. (2008). Our minds are made up—Don't confuse us with the facts: Commentary on policies concerning children with sexual behavior problems and juvenile sex offenders. Child Maltreatment, 13(2), 110-121. https://doi.org/10.1177/1077559508314510
- Cheung, M. W. L. (2019). A guide to conducting a meta-analysis with non-independent effect sizes. Neuropsychology Review, 29(4), 387-396. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11065-019-09415-6
- Chouinard-Thivierge, S., Lussier, P., & Charette, Y. (2023). The adult offending outcomes of adolescents who have perpetrated a sex offense: is sexual offending in adolescence indicative of things to come?. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 21(1), 3-26. https://doi.org/10.1177/15412040221123529
- Chouinard-Thivierge, S., Lussier, P., & Daignault, I. V. (2022). A longitudinal examination of developmental covariates of sexual behavior problems among youth referred to child protection services. Sexual Abuse, 34(5), 537-567. https://doi.org/10.1177/10790632211047184
- Cohen, M. A., Piquero, A. R., & Jennings, W. G. (2010). Studying the costs of crime across offender trajectories. Criminology & Public Policy, 9(2), 279-305. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9133.2010.00627.x
- Conn, V. S., Valentine, J. C., Cooper, H. M., & Rantz, M. J. (2003). Grey literature in meta-analyses. Nursing Research, 52(4), 256-261.
- Cortoni, F., Hanson, R. K., & Coache, M. È. (2010). The recidivism rates of female sexual offenders are low: A meta-analysis. Sexual Abuse, 22(4), 387-401. doi: 10.1177/1079063210372142
- Cottle, C. C., Lee, R. J., & Heilbrun, K. (2001). The prediction of criminal recidivism in juveniles: A meta-analysis. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28(3), 367-394.
- Doshay, L. J. (1943). The boy sex offender and his later career. Montclair, NJ: Patterson Smith.
- Dunham, H. W. (1951). Crucial Issues in the Treatment and Control of Sexual Deviation in the Community. Department of Mental Hygiene. Lansing, Michigan.
- Duwe, G., & Rocque, M. (2021). The predictive performance of risk assessment in real life: An external validation of the MnSTARR. Corrections, 6(5), 366-382. https://doi.org/10.1080/23774657.2019.1682952
- Elliott, D. S., Huizinga, D., & Morse, B. (1986). Self-reported violent offending: A descriptive analysis of juvenile violent offenders and their offending careers. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 1(4), 472-514.
- Fabio, A., Loeber, R., Balasubramani, G. K., Roth, J., Fu, W., & Farrington, D. P. (2006). Why some generations are more violent than others: assessment of age, period, and cohort effects. American Journal of Epidemiology, 164(2), 151-160. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwj172
- Fagan, J., Piper, E., & Moore, M. (1986). Violent delinquents and urban youths. Criminology, 24(3), 439-471.
- Farrell, G., Tilley, N., & Tseloni, A. (2014). Why the crime drop? Crime and Justice, 43(1), 421-490.
- Fanniff, A. M., & Becker, J. V. (2006). Specialized assessment and treatment of adolescent sex offenders. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 11(3), 265-282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2005.08.003
- Fanniff, A. M., & Kimonis, E. R. (2014). Juveniles who have committed sexual offenses: A special group? Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 32(2), 240-257. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsl.2111
- Fehrenbach, P. A., Smith, W., Monastersky, C., & Deisher, R. W. (1986). Adolescent sexual offenders: Offender and offense characteristics. American Journal of Orthopsychiatry, 56(2), 225–233.
- Fox, J. A. (1996). Trends in juvenile violence: A report to the United States Attorney General on current and future rates of juvenile offending. US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics.
- Gendreau, P., Little, T., & Goggin, C. (1996). A meta‐analysis of the predictors of adult offender recidivism: What works! Criminology, 34(4), 575-608.
- Groth, A. N. (1977). The adolescent sexual offender and his prey. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 21(3), 249-254.
- Groth, A. N., Loredo, C. M., & Groth, A. N. (1981). Juvenile sexual offenders: Guidelines for assessment. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 25(1), 31-39.
- Hagan, M., King, R., & Patros, R. (1994). The efficacy of a serious sex offenders treatment program for adolescent rapists. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 39, 141-150.
- Hedges, L. V., & Olkin, I. (2014). Statistical methods for meta-analysis. Academic press.
- Hunter, J. A., Figueredo, A. J., Malamuth, N. M., & Becker, J. V. (2003). Juvenile sex offenders: Toward the development of a typology. Sexual Abuse, 15(1), 27-48.
- Hunter, J. A., Gilbertson, S. A., Vedros, D., & Morton, M. (2004). Strengthening community-based programming for juvenile sexual offenders: Key concepts and paradigm shifts. Child Maltreatment, 9(2), 177-189. Doi: 10.1177/1077559504264261
- Kempf-Leonard, K., Tracy, P. E., & Howell, J. C. (2001). Serious, violent, and chronic juvenile offenders: The relationship of delinquency career types to adult criminality. Justice Quarterly, 18(3), 449-478. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418820100094981
- Kettrey, H. H., & Lipsey, M. W. (2018). The effects of specialized treatment on the recidivism of juvenile sex offenders: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 14(3), 361-387. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-018-9329-3
- Lee Rasmussen, L. A. (2022). Youth adjudicated for sex offenses, followed into adulthood, and found on a state sex offender registry. Journal of Aggression, Maltreatment & Trauma, 31(10), 1359-1378. https://doi.org/10.1080/10926771.2022.2112332
- Letourneau, E. J., & Miner, M. H. (2005). Juvenile sex offenders: A case against the legal and clinical status quo. Sexual Abuse, 17(3), 293-312. Doi: 10.1007/s11194-005-5059-y
- Letourneau, E. J., Bandyopadhyay, D., Sinha, D., & Armstrong, K. S. (2009). The influence of sex offender registration on juvenile sexual recidivism. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 20(2), 136-153. Doi: 10.1177/0887403408327917
- Lewis, D. O., Shankok, S. S., & Pincus, J. H. (1979). Juvenile male sexual assaulters. The American Journal of Psychiatry, 136(9), 1194–1196.
- Loeber, R., & Farrington, D. P. (Eds.). (1998). Serious and violent juvenile offenders: Risk factors and successful interventions. Sage.
- Longo, R. E., & Groth, A. N. (1983). Juvenile sexual offenses in the histories of adult rapists and child molesters. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 27(2), 150-155.
- Lösel, F., & Schmucker, M. (2005). The effectiveness of treatment for sexual offenders: A comprehensive meta-analysis. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 1(1), 117-146. https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403408327917
- Lussier, P. (2017). Juvenile sex offending through a developmental life course criminology perspective: An agenda for policy and research. Sexual Abuse, 29(1), 51-80. https://doi.org/10.1177/1079063215580966
- Lussier, P., & Blokland, A. (2014). The adolescence-adulthood transition and Robins’ continuity paradox: Criminal career patterns of juvenile and adult sex offenders in a prospective longitudinal birth cohort study. Journal of Criminal Justice, 42(2), 153-163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2013.07.004
- Lussier, P., Blokland, A., Mathesius, J., Pardini, D., & Loeber, R. (2015). The childhood risk factors of adolescent-onset and adult-onset of sex offending: Evidence from a prospective longitudinal study. In Blokland, A., & Lussier, P. (eds.), Sex Offenders: A Criminal Career Approach (pp. 93-128). Wiley.
- Lussier, P., & Cale, J. (2013). Beyond sexual recidivism: A review of the sexual criminal career parameters of adult sex offenders. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 18(5), 445-457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2013.06.005
- Lussier, P., Chouinard Thivierge, S., Fréchette, J., & Proulx, J. (2024). Sex offender recidivism: Some lessons learned from over 70 years of research. Criminal justice review, 49(4), 413-452. https://doi.org/10.1177/07340168231157385
- Lussier, P., Corrado, R. R., & McCuish, E. (2016). A criminal career study of the continuity and discontinuity of sex offending during the adolescence-adulthood transition: A prospective longitudinal study of incarcerated youth. Justice Quarterly, 33(7), 1123-1153. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2015.1028966
- Lussier, P., McCuish, E. C., & Cale, J. (2020). Understanding sexual offending: An evidence-based response to myths and misconceptions. Springer.
- Lussier, P., McCuish, E., & Jeglic, E. L. (2023a). Against All Odds: The Unexplained Sexual Recidivism Drop in the United States and Canada. Crime and Justice, 52(1), 125-196.
- Lussier, P., McCuish, E., Proulx, J., Chouinard Thivierge, S., & Frechette, J. (2023b). The sexual recidivism drop in Canada: A meta‐analysis of sex offender recidivism rates over an 80‐year period. Criminology & Public Policy, 22(1), 125-160. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12611
- Lussier, P., Van Den Berg, C., Bijleveld, C., & Hendriks, J. (2012). A developmental taxonomy of juvenile sex offenders for theory, research, and prevention: The adolescent-limited and the high-rate slow desister. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 39(12), 1559-1581. Doi: 10.1177/0093854812455739
- Maclay, D. T. (1960). Boys who commit sexual misdemeanours. British Medical Journal, 1(5167), 186.
- Marshall, W. L., Hudson, S. M., & Hodkinson, S. (1993). The importance of attachment bonds in the development of juvenile sex offending. Barbaree, H.E., Marshall, W.L., & Hudson, S.M. (eds), The juvenile sex offender (p. 164-181). Guilford Press.
- McCann, K., & Lussier, P. (2008). Antisociality, sexual deviance, and sexual reoffending in juvenile sex offenders: A meta-analytical investigation. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 6(4), 363-385. Doi:10.1177/1541204008320260
- McCuish, E. C., Lussier, P., & Corrado, R. (2021). The life course of serious and violent youth grown up: A twenty-year longitudinal study. Routledge.
- McCuish, E. C., & Lussier, P. (2017). Unfinished stories: From juvenile sex offenders to juvenile sex offending through a developmental life course perspective. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 37, 71-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2017.09.004
- McCuish, E., Lussier, P., & Corrado, R. (2016). Criminal careers of juvenile sex and nonsex offenders: Evidence from a prospective longitudinal study. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 14(3), 199-224. Doi: 10.1177/1541204014567541
- McCuish, E. C., Lussier, P., & Corrado, R. R. (2015). Examining antisocial behavioral antecedents of juvenile sexual offenders and juvenile non-sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse, 27(4), 414-438. Doi: 10.1177/1079063213517268
- Migliavaca, C. B., Stein, C., Colpani, V., Munn, Z., & Falavigna, M. (2020). Quality assessment of prevalence studies: a systematic review. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 127, 59-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.06.039
- Miner, M. H. (2002). Factors associated with recidivism in juveniles: An analysis of serious juvenile sex offenders. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 39(4), 421-436. Doi: 10.1177/002242702237287
- Newcombe, R. G. (1998). Two‐sided confidence intervals for the single proportion: comparison of seven methods. Statistics in Medicine, 17(8), 857-872.
- Nyaga, V. N., Arbyn, M., & Aerts, M. (2014). Metaprop: A Stata command to perform meta-analysis of binomial data. Archives of Public Health, 72(1), 1-10.
- Petkus, A. A., Sullivan, C. J., Lugo, M., & Newsome, J. (2022). The impact of risk assessment on juvenile justice decision-making and new adjudication: An analysis of usage and outcome. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 20(2), 139-163. Doi: 10.1177/15412040211061270
- Prentky, R., Harris, B., Frizzell, K., & Righthand, S. (2000). An actuarial procedure for assessing risk with juvenile sex offenders. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 12(2), 71-93.
- Prop, L. J., van der Laan, A. M., Beerthuizen, M. G., Barendregt, C. S., & van Nieuwenhuizen, C. (2025). Juvenile sanctions for young adult offenders in the Netherlands: an opportunity for rehabilitation? Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Mental Health, 19(1), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13034-025-00888-3
- Reiss, A. J. (1960). Sex Offenses: The Marginal Status of the Adolescent. Law and Contemporary Problems, 25(2), 309-333.
- Rice, M., & Harris, G. (2006). What population and what question? Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 48(1), 95-101. https://doi.org/10.1353/ccj.2006.0012
- Rosa, M., Fox, B., & Jennings, W. G. (2020). Do developmental and life-course theory risk factors equally predict age of onset among juvenile sexual and nonsexual offenders? Sexual Abuse, 32(1), 55-78. Doi: 10.1177/1079063218797714
- Schmucker, M., & Lösel, F. (2011). Meta-analysis as a method of systematic reviews. The Sage Handbook of Criminological Research Methods, 425-443.
- Seto, M. C., & Lalumiere, M. L. (2010). What is so special about male adolescent sexual offending? A review and test of explanations through meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 136(4), 526-575. Doi: 10.1037/a0019700
- Smallbone, S. W. (2006). Social and psychological factors in the development of delinquency and sexual deviance. Barbaree, H.E. & Marshall, W.L. (eds.), The juvenile sex offender, Second Edition (p. 211-225). London: Guilford.
- Soothill, K. (2010). Sex offender recidivism. Crime and Justice, 39(1), 145-211.
- Stoltenborgh, M., Van Ijzendoorn, M. H., Euser, E. M., & Bakermans-Kranenburg, M. J. (2011). A global perspective on child sexual abuse: Meta-analysis of prevalence around the world. Child Maltreatment, 16(2), 79-101. Doi: 10.1177/1077559511403920
- Taylor, S. C., & Gassner, L. (2010). Stemming the flow: Challenges for policing adult sexual assault with regard to attrition rates and under‐reporting of sexual offenses. Police Practice and Research: An International Journal, 11(3), 240-255. https://doi.org/10.1080/15614260902830153
- Tracy, P. E., Wolfgang, M. E., & Figlio, R. M. (2013). Delinquency careers in two birth cohorts. Springer Science & Business Media.
- Van Den Berg, C., Bijleveld, C., & Hendriks, J. (2017). The juvenile sex offender: Criminal careers and life events. Sexual Abuse, 29(1), 81-101. Doi: 10.1177/1079063215580967
- Van Wijk, A., Van Horn, J., Bullens, R., Bijleveld, C., & Doreleijers, T. (2005). Juvenile sex offenders: A group on its own? International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 49(1), 25-36. Doi: 10.1177/0306624X04270788
- Van Wijk, A., Vermeiren, R., Loeber, R., Hart-Kerkhoffs, L. T., Doreleijers, T., & Bullens, R. (2006). Juvenile sex offenders compared to non-sex offenders: A review of the literature 1995-2005. Trauma, Violence, & Abuse, 7(4), 227-243. Doi: 10.1177/1524838006292519
- Viljoen, J. L., Mordell, S., & Beneteau, J. L. (2012). Prediction of adolescent sexual reoffending: A meta-analysis of the J-SOAP-II, ERASOR, J-SORRAT-II, and Static-99. Law and Human Behavior, 36(5), 423–438. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0093938
- Worling, J. R., & Langton, C. M. (2012). Assessment and treatment of adolescents who sexually offend: Clinical issues and implications for secure settings. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 39(6), 814-841. Doi: 10.1177/0093854812439378
- Worling, J. R., & Långström, N. (2003). Assessment of criminal recidivism risk with adolescents who have offended sexually: A review. Trauma, Violence, & Abuse, 4(4), 341-362. Doi:10.1177/1524838003256562
- Zimring, F. E. (2004). An American travesty: Legal responses to adolescent sexual offending. University of Chicago Press.
- Zimring, F. E., & Rushin, S. (2013). Did Changes in Juvenile Sanctions Reduce Juvenile Crime Rates? A Natural Experiment. Ohio State Journal of Criminal Law, 11, 14-22.