ror.org/00f54p054
Abstracts
Résumé
Le soutien de groupes rebelles par des États est récurrent dans les guerres civiles contemporaines. Or, souvent, ces rébellions ont relativement peu de chances de succès, même lorsqu’elles sont financées par des États puissants. Pourquoi est-ce que ceux-ci soutiennent des causes rebelles qui ont si peu de chances de réussite ? Cet article aborde ce paradoxe en suggérant que souvent les États ne cherchent pas à aider l’entreprise rebelle, mais plutôt à affaiblir un pays rival en y provoquant une guerre civile ou en intensifiant un conflit préexistant. L’analyse avec un modèle formel montre que le soutien étranger aux groupes rebelles peut agir comme une contre-force qui empêche la résolution des conflits par la voie institutionnelle. La relation historique entre la Russie et les rebelles kurdes est étudiée à la lumière des nouveaux éléments théoriques présentés.
Mots clés:
- guerre civile,
- rébellion,
- conflit international,
- démocratisation
Abstract
State sponsorship of rebel groups is a recurring phenomenon of contemporary civil wars. However, these rebellions are often relatively unlikely to succeed, even if they are financed by powerful states. Why do states support rebel causes with such limited chances of success ? This article looks into this paradox by suggesting that states often do not seek to help the rebel enterprise, but to weaken a rival country by provoking a civil war or intensifying an existing one. The analysis with a formal model shows that foreign support to rebel groups can act as a counterforce that prohibits institutional conflict resolution. The historical relationship between Russians and Turkish Kurds is analyzed with these new theoretical insights.
Keywords:
- civil war,
- rebellion,
- international conflict,
- democratization
Appendices
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