Abstracts
Résumé
L’objet de cet article est d’étudier l’impact de la dette publique sur la croissance économique. Pour ce faire et afin d’éviter le problème d’hétérogénéité, un échantillon total de 35 pays (zone euro, Union européenne et pays avancés) est divisé en deux groupes, différenciés par leurs ratios d’endettement public en pourcentage du PIB. Nous testons cette problématique durant la période 2006-2013, marquée par la crise financière et celle de la dette souveraine. L’outil économétrique utilisé se base sur les estimations de la méthode des moments généralisés en panel dynamique, développée par Blundell et Bond (1998).
Les résultats obtenus au niveau de l’échantillon total et des pays très endettés plaident en faveur d’un effet négatif du fardeau élevé de la dette publique sur la croissance, au-delà des valeurs limites suggérées par le traité de Maastricht. Pour le groupe de pays qui maîtrise bien son ratio d’endettement, l’impact est au contraire positif, confirmant l’existence d’un effet d’incitation du déficit et de la dette publique à la croissance économique. La conclusion de ce travail est que la relation entre la dette publique et la croissance varie considérablement selon la période observée et le pays étudié. En plus, l’endettement public peut être considéré comme un outil légitime de politique économique qui permet de fabriquer la croissance, si elle est gérée avec prudence.
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to study the impact of the public debt on the economic growth. To do it and to avoid the heterogeneity problem, a total sample of 35 countries (Euro Zone, European Union and developed countries) is divided into two groups, differentiated by their public debt ratios as a percentage of GDP. We test this issue during the period 2006-2013, marked by both financial and sovereign debt crises. The econometric tool used is based on the generalized method of moment’s estimations for dynamic panel, developed by Blundell and Bond (1998).
The results obtained at the total sample and the highly indebted countries argue for a negative effect of the high public debt on the economic growth, beyond the limit values suggested by the Maastricht Treaty. For the countries’ group that has well controlled its public debt ratio, the impact is positive, confirming the existence of an incentive effect of the deficit and the public debt to the economic growth. The conclusion derived from this work is that the relationship between the public debt and the growth varies considerably depending on the period and the country. In addition, the public debt can be considered a legitimate tool of economic policy which can produce growth, if managed carefully.
Appendices
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