Volume 57, numéro 1, janvier–mars 1981

EN :

This paper presents a capital coefficient matrix for replacement and a capital coefficient matrix for expansion, for the Quebec economy disaggregated into 29 industrial sectors. The computations are based on data for the 1972-1976 period.

The matrices presented in this paper constitute an up-dating of matrices presented in a similar study made in 1973 by the Centre de Recherche en Développement Économique. In order to perform this updating, we had the opportunity of using more reliable data series which were not available when the former matrices were estimated.

EN :

Contemporary economic theory explains the historical evolution in industrial leisure, the change in the time spent working on the labor market with the aid of a single variable, price. This article proposes a different explanation of the determination of industrial leisure. The fundamental economic conditions that have affected industrial leisure, it is argued, are unemployment, industrial development which has modified the composition of jobs and the complementary between entrepreneurial and white-color occupations. This thesis which has emerged following a study of the historical evolution of industrial leisure in Canada since Confederation focuses on the three dimensions of leisure: the length of the normal work week, labour force non-participation and paid vacations and holidays.

EN :

Examination of recent information about tourist journeys outside Quebec Province has given rise to the idea that such trips do not take place in accordance with conventional laws such as those based on the universal gravitation model, but rather are governed by criteria of decision in which distance is not a continuous variable. After emphasizing certain weaknesses of conventional models of spatial interaction, this article shows that the theory of catastrophes, developed from R. Thom's studies of morphogenesis, makes possible a new approach, based on utilitarian concepts, to the role played by distance in tourist journeys.

EN :

Keynes begun his scientifïc career with probability theory. But, he had not the idea, as far as we can know, to give a probabilistic interpretation of his famous multiplier. This article is aimed at showing that probability theory, and especially finite Markov chains theory, gives an easier and even more natural interpretation of the keynesian multiplier than the traditional methods.

Multiplier theory may be looked on as old-fashioned today, but it is still at the heart of most of macroeconometric models. So, we define first the relative position of the multiplier, which is linear and actually static, inside these models which are non-linear and dynamic.

Secondly, we give a markovian interpretation of the income multiplier in both cases of the simple multiplier and the matrix multiplier. We compare it with the traditional interpretation: in the probabilistic interpretation every kind of economic agents (banks and firms, and not only households) take a part in the process of incomes which leads to the multiplier.

Finally, we enlarge our method to the neighbouring analysis of the money multiplier and of the velocity of money.

Our conclusion is that the markovian method could also be used for a keynesian crisis analysis.

EN :

This paper examines the role and practices of the Quebec Transport Commission (QTC), and attempts to assess the significance of regulatory restrictions in this province and their impact on the performance of the Quebec trucking industry. So the interpretation given by the QTC to the test of "public convenience and necessity" makes the requirement for a licence a major obstacle to entry. The rate approval process in Quebec, on the other hand, appears to be largely a formality; the proportion of requests for rate changes granted in whole or in part by the QTC tends to generally be well over 90 percent. These aspects, along with the significant role of the Quebec Tariff Bureau, suggest that regulation is likely to substantially reduce competition and provide for the realization of monopoly rents.

However, a number of factors have eroded the influence both of the QTC and the Quebec Tariff Bureau. The availability of substitute transport services has substantially reduced the effects of the QTC's entry restrictions. In this regard, it is refered specifically to the services of freight brokers and leasing (or pseudo-leasing) firms, and to the potential alternatives in the form of rail and private carriage. In addition, "illegal trucking" has become an important phenomenon in the province as a result of the rather lax enforcement of the Commission's regulations and the low fines for violations. As for the activities of the Quebec Tariff Bureau, it is pointed out that it does not and could not effectively "cartelize" the industry given its inability to enforce rates and production quotas, and the strong incentive of individual members to undermine any such cartel.

An examination of various aspects of the performance of the Quebec trucking industry was found to confirm the importance of competitive factors. Although some permits in the province have acquired a market value, these were estimated to be quite low (as a percentage of operating revenue), well below the levels found for the U.S. This suggests that regulation is not giving rise to very substantial excess profits for the industry as a whole. A comparison of before-tax rates of return for firms in Quebec and firms in Alberta supports this finding. More generally, the analysis of market structure and performance leads to the conclusion that trucking regulation in Quebec is largely ineffective. The availability of intra-modal and inter-modal substitutes has considerably reduced the impact of regulation on industry performance and greatly diminished its negative consequences for allocative efficiency.

EN :

In this paper, we try to explain the effect of the farmer's education and the age factor upon the gap with respect to optimal productivity of inputs used in the agriculture of region "04", Quebec. Two models are developed. One, the "worker effect", studies the effect of education and age on labor productivity. The other, identified as the "allocative effect", attempts to describe the "worker effect" on the allocation of physical inputs.

The results demonstrate that the impact of age and education on factor productivity varies with farm size. In particular, while education shows increasing returns to scale, physical inputs tend to experience constant or even decreasing returns to scale.

The study concludes by advocating the development of strategies aiming at offering more educational opportunities as well as better sources of information to farmers, so that they can improve their decision-making process and the over-all productivity of physical inputs used on farms.