Abstracts
Résumé
À l’instar de nombreux autres pays, la Belgique a fait face à un nombre croissant de faillites d’entreprises depuis la crise des « subprimes ». Ce nombre a, en effet, augmenté d’un peu plus de 43 % entre 2007 et 2012. Sur base d’un échantillon d’entreprises belges couvrant une période allant de 2002 à 2010, cet article a pour but de développer trois modèles économétriques de prévision construits à partir de six ratios financiers, respectivement à un, trois et cinq ans avant la faillite. Outre l’apport académique à la recherche relative à la prévision des faillites en Belgique, les résultats de cette étude empirique peuvent être utiles au sein du monde professionnel, notamment pour les institutions financières intéressées par le risque de faillite de leurs partenaires.
Abstract
Like many other countries, Belgium has faced a growing number of corporate bankruptcies since the “subprime“ crisis. This number increased by more than 43% between 2007 and 2012. Based on a sample of Belgian companies covering a period from 2002 to 2010, this paper aims to develop three econometric forecasting models constructed from six financial ratios, respectively one, three and five years before bankruptcy. Besides the academic contribution to the research relative to the bankruptcy prediction in Belgium, the empirical results of this study may be useful for practitioners, particularly for financial institutions interested in the bankruptcy risk of their partners.
Appendices
Bibliographie
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