Abstracts
Résumé
Dans cet article nous étudions l’évolution et la soutenabilité de l’endettement public au Canada à l’aide de la méthodologie comptable proposée par Pasinetti (1998). Nous montrons dans quelle mesure la politique d’austérité décidée par le gouvernement canadien lors de la première moitié des années quatre-vingt-dix a pu faire croire à ce que certains économistes nomment l’austérité expansionniste. Ainsi, nous dévoilons un large faisceau de circonstances « bienheureuses » ayant empêché une récession économique. Au regard de ces différents éléments, nous précisons pourquoi le Canada ne devrait pas constituer un exemple à suivre aveuglément en matière de consolidation budgétaire.
Abstract
This paper studies the evolution and sustainability of public debt in Canada thanks to the accounting methodology put forward by Pasinetti (1998). We show to what extent the austerity policies, which have been applied in the first half of the 1990s by the Canadian government, led to believe to what has been called by some economists the expansionist austerity. Thus, we unveil a large body of “happy” circumstances that prevented the surge of economic recession. When looking at these different elements, we precise the reasons why the Canadian experience should not constitute a role model to be blindly followed as far as fiscal consolidation is concerned.
Appendices
Bibliographie
- Alesina, A. et R. Perotti (1995), « Fiscal Expansions and Adjustments in OECD Economies », Economic Policy, 21 : 207-247.10.1086/260266 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Alesina, A. et S. Ardagna (2010), « Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending », Tax Policy and the Economy, 24 : 35-68.10.4337/9781843765325.00017 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Arestis, P. et E. De Antoni (2009), « Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis: The Crucial Role of Fiscal Policy », in J. Creel et M. Sawyer (éds), Current Thinking on Fiscal Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, New York.10.2307/3585133 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Barro, R. J. (1974), « Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? », Journal of Political Economy, 82 : 1095-1117.10.1086/260266 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Blecker, R. (2002), « Distribution, Demand and Growth in Neo-Kaleckian Macro-Models », in M. Setterfield (éd.), The Economics of Demand-Led Growth, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.10.4337/9781843765325.00017 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Bougrine, H. (2000), « Fiscal Policy and the Current Crises: Are Budget Deficits a Cause, a consequence or a Remedy? », in H. Bougrine (éd.), The Economics of Public Spending, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.10.2307/3867139 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Creel, J., B. Ducoudré, C. Mathieu et H. Sterdyniak (2005), « Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire? Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques », Revue de l’OFCE, 92 : 43-97.10.2307/1344590 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Domar, E. (1944), « The ‘Burden of Debt’ and the National Income », American Economic Review, 34 : 798-827.10.1086/649828 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Fazzari, S. et H.P. Minsky. (1984), « Domestic Monetary Policy: if not Monetarism, what? », Journal of Economic Issues, 18 : 101-116.10.1007/978-0-230-30604-2_4 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Fortin, P. (1993), « The Unbearable Lightness of Zero-Inflation Optimism », Canadian Business Economics, 1(3) : 3-18.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Giavazzi, F. et M. Pagano (1990), « Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries », NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 5 : 75-122.10.2307/3585133 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Lavoie, M. (2000), « Government Deficits in Simple Kaleckian Models », in H. Bougrine (éd.), The Economics of Public Spending, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Lavoie, M. (2009), Introduction to Post-Keynesian Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke (2e édition).10.1080/00213624.1984.11504220 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Lavoie, M. et M. Seccareccia (1996), « Central Bank Austerity Policy, Zero-Inflation Targets, And Productivity Growth in Canada », Journal of Economic Issues, 30 : 533-544.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Levine, A.S., R. Frank et O. Dijk (2010), « Expenditures Cascades », SSRN Working Paper Series, n° 1690612.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- McCracken, M.C. (1996), « Recent Canadian Monetary Policy: Deficit and Debt Implications », in L. Osberg et P. Fortin (éds), Unnecessary Debts, Lorimer, Toronto, p. 71-89.10.1057/9780230235489 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Minsky, H.P. (1996), «The Essential Characteristics of Post Keynesian Economics », in G. Deleplace et E.J. Nell (éds), Money in Motion: The Post-Keynesian and Circulation Approaches, Macmillan, London.10.1080/00213624.1996.11505817 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Nasica, E.et A. Raybaut (2005), «Profits, Confidence and Public Deficits: Modeling Minsky’s Institutional Dynamics », Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, 28 : 136-154.10.2139/ssrn.1690612 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Osberg, L. et P. Fortin (1996), « Credibility Mountain », in L. Osberg et P. Fortin (éds), Unnecessary Debts, Lorimer, Toronto, p. 157-172.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Pasinetti, L. (1997), « The Social ‘Burden’ of High Interest Rates », in P. Arestis, G. Palma et M. Sawyer (éds), Capital Controversy, Post-Keynesian Economics and the History of Economic Thought, Routledge, London.10.1007/978-1-349-24525-3_3 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Pasinetti, L. (1998), « The Myth (or Folly) of the 3 % Deficit/GDP Maastricht Parameter », Cambridge Journal of Economics, 22 : 103-116.10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a013701 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Pasinetti, L. (2000), « Public Debt in the European Union Countries: Two Ways of Facing the Problem », in J. Krishnakumar et E. Ronchetti (éds), Panel Data Econometrics: Future Directions, Elsevier, Amsterdam.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Perotti, R. (2013), « The ‘Austerity Myth’: Gain Without Pain? », in A. Alesina et F. Giavazzi (éds), Fiscal Policy After the Great Recession, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Saez, E. et M. R. Veall (2005), « The Evolution of High Incomes in Northern America: Lessons from Canadian Evidence », American Economic Review, 95 : 831-849.10.1257/0002828054201404 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Seccareccia, M. et A. Sharpe (1993), « Déficits budgétaires et compétitivité du Canada: une analyse critique », in P. Paquette et M. Seccareccia (éds), Les pièges de l’austérité : dette nationale et prospérité économique, alternatives à l’orthodoxie, Presses de l’Université de Montréal, Montréal.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Spaventa, L. (1987), « The Growth of Public Debt - Sustainability, Fiscal Rules and Monetary Rules », IMF Staff Papers, 34 : 374-399.10.2307/3867139 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Tobin, J. (1986), « The Monetary-Fiscal Mix: Long-Run Implications », American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 76 : 213-218.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar