Abstracts
Résumé
Cet article propose une analyse descriptive des données macroéconomiques dans la zone euro et une étude de la transmission des politiques monétaire et budgétaire à travers une analyse SVAR. Les résultats suggèrent que, depuis la création de la zone euro, la politique monétaire a joué un rôle important aussi bien pour la stabilisation de l’inflation et de l’activité réelle, en ayant un comportement contracyclique soutenu. Au niveau agrégé, la politique budgétaire semble aussi avoir favorisé la stabilisation de l’activité réelle par des actions contracycliques (surtout après 2003). Cependant, des divergences importantes apparaissent au niveau national, mettant en cause l’efficacité de la gestion budgétaire dans l’Union économique et monétaire (UEM). L’étude de la transmission des différents chocs à l’intérieur de la zone confirme l’idée d’une certaine complémentarité entre politique monétaire commune et politiques budgétaires nationales. Elle met aussi en exergue l’hétérogénéité de la transmission des chocs au niveau national, preuve de la présence d’asymétries structurelles qui persistent dans cette région.
Abstract
This paper provides a descriptive analysis of macroeconomic data in the euro area and uses a SVAR approach to study the transmission of the fiscal and monetary policy in this region. The results suggest that the monetary policy has played an important role since 2000, both for the inflation and output stabilization, having a sustained counter-cyclical behavior in the euro area. If, at aggregate level, the fiscal policy also appears to have supported the output stabilization (especially after 2003), significant differences appear at the national level, casting doubt on the effectiveness of budgetary policy design in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The study on the transmission of shocks within the area confirms, in a certain extent, the complementary actions of the monetary policy and of the national fiscal policies. It also underlines the heterogeneity of the transmission of shocks at the national level, which is a proof of still persistent structural asymmetries in this area.
Appendices
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