Résumés
Abstract
While the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery unfold in real time, this article investigates some of the major themes on preparations for the next pandemic. Humanity cannot rely on modern medicine to beat the coming ‘disease X’ and the world cannot afford the extortionate health and economic policy interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic again. From the COVID-19 pandemic we learned that the international economic organizations suffered from disaster myopia and that the self-image of the advanced economies is distorted. It also has become apparent that ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ health care was generally practiced while global health care should have been the norm. A discussion on the related issues of rationing, triage and scarcity of health care during a pandemic is urgently needed. All in all, a major global investment project is necessary to reduce the vulnerability to and impact of pandemics. As inequalities to a large extent determine pandemic vulnerability, an adjustment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) is necessary.
Keywords:
- covid-19,
- pandemic preparedness,
- global public goods,
- long-term strategy
Parties annexes
Bibliography
- Abeln, Barend, and Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, 2021, "COVID-19 and Seasonal Adjustment." Cahier Scientific 2021S-05, CIRANO: Quebec.
- Adda, Jerome, 2016, ‘Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: evidence from high frequency data’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (2), pp. 891–941.
- Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku, Peter A.G. van Bergeijk and Binyam Afewerk Demena, COVID-19 and the Threat to Globalization: An optimistic note in: in: Elissaios Papyrakis (ed.) Covid-19 and International Development, Springer 2022, in print.
- Agarwal, Ruchir and Gita Gopinath, 2021, A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic, IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/2021/004, IMF: Washington DC.
- Akbarpour, Mohammad, Eric B. Budish, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers, 2021, "An Economic Framework for Vaccine Prioritization." paper presented at ICEA After the pandemic – Public policy lessons conference https://iceanet.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Dworczak.pdf
- Allen, Douglas W., 2021, "Covid Lockdown Cost/Benefits: A Critical Assessment of the Literature.", International Journal of the Economics of Business doi :10.1080/13571516.2021.1976051
- Alm, James et al. 2021, ‘Tax Policy Measures to Combat the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic and Considerations to Improve Tax Compliance: A Behavioral Perspective’ FinanzArchiv/Public Finance Analysis 76 (4), 396-428.
- Baldwin, Richard and Beatrice Weber di Mauro (eds), 2020a Economics in the Time of COVID-19, https://voxeu.org/content/economics-time-covid-19
- Baldwin, Richard and Beatrice Weber di Mauro (eds) 2020b Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes, https://voxeu.org/content/mitigating-covid-economic-crisis-act-fast-and-do-whatever-it-takes.
- Bénassy, Jean-Pascal, 2016,. "Non clearing markets in general equilibrium.", in Matias Vernengo, Esteban Perez Caldentey and Barkley J. Rosser Jr (eds), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (living edition) 10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_2271-1
- Bergeijk, Peter A.G. van, 2012, Opârg fitfara eft ksvurf, Ekonomiy ur Ďônopros, 72 (8), p. 6.
- Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2014, Earth economics: An introduction to demand management, long-run growth and global economic governance. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham.
- Bergeijk, Peter A.G. van, 2021, Pandemic Economics, Edward Elgar: Cheltenham.
- Bergeijk, Peter A.G. van and Rolph van der Hoeven (eds), 2017, Sustainable Development Goals and Income Inequality, Edward Elgar: Cheltenham.
- Behsudi, Adam, 2020, ‘Wish You Were Here’, Finance and Development, pp. 36-9
- Boianovsky, Mauro and Erreygers, Guido, 2021, How Economists Ignored the Spanish Flu Pandemic in 1918–20 (February 11, 2021). Center for the History of Political Economy at Duke University Working Paper Series, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3783854 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3783854
- Boettke, Peter, and Benjamin Powell, 2021, "The political economy of the COVID‐19 pandemic." Southern Economic Journal 87 (4) blz. 1090-1106.
- Bolt, Jutta and Jan Luiten van Zanden, 2020, ‘Maddison style estimates of the evolution of the world economy. A new 2020 update’, Maddison Project Database, version 2020, Groningen.
- Commission on a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future, 2016, The Neglected Dimension of Global Security: A Framework to Counter Infectious Disease Crises, doi: 10.17226/21891.
- Committee for Development Policy, 2020, Development Policy and Multilateralism after COVID-19, United Nations, New York.
- Cunha, Burk A., 2004, ‘Influenza: historical aspects of epidemics and pandemics’, Infectious Disease Clinics 18 (1), pp. 141–55.
- Dasaratha, Krishna, 2021, Virus Dynamics with Behavioral Responses, paper presented at ICEA After the pandemic – Public policy lessons conference. https://iceanet.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Dasaratha.pdf
- Daszak, Peter, 2012, ‘Anatomy of a pandemic’, The Lancet 380 (9857), pp. 1883–84.
- Davis, C. M., and Wojciech Charemza 2012, Models of disequilibrium and shortage in centrally planned economies. Springer Science & Business Media: New York
- Ebregt, Jos, 2016, "The CPB World Trade Monitor: Technical Description." CPB Background Document, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis: The Hague.
- Fan, Victoria Y., Dean T. Jamison, and Lawrence H. Summers, 2018, ‘Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?’, Bulletin of the World Health Organization 96 (2), pp. 129–34.
- Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2021, The Effect of Public Corruption on COVID-19 Fatality Rate: A Cross-Country Examination, CESifo Working Paper No. 8938, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3805464
- Gans, J.S., 2021, Vaccine Hesitancy, Passports and the Demand for Vaccination, paper presented at ICEA After the pandemic – Public policy lessons conference. https://iceanet.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Gans.pdf
- Gopinath, G., 2020, ‘Foreword’, in: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2020, IMF: Washington DC, pp. v–vi.
- Hale, Thomas, et al. 2021, "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)." Nature Human Behaviour 5.4 (2021): 529-538.
- Hoeven, Rolph van der and Rob Vos, 2022, Reforming the International Financial and Fiscal System for better COVID-19 and Post-Pandemic Crisis Responsiveness, in: Elissaios Papyrakis (ed.) Covid-19 and International Development, Springer 2022, in print.
- IMF 2018, World Economic Outlook: Challenges to Steady Growth, IMF: Washington DC.
- IMF, 2021, Fiscal Monitor, October 2021: Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances, IMF: Washington DC.
- Inglesby, Thoma V. et al., 2006, "Disease mitigation measures in the control of pandemic influenza." Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science 4, no. 4 (2006): 366-375.
- International Working Group on Financing Preparedness, 2017, From Panic and Neglect to Investing in Health Security: Financing Pandemic Preparedness at a National Level, https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/979591495652724770/from-panic-and-neglect-to-investing-in-health-security-financing-pandemic-preparedness-at-a-national-level
- Jamison, Dean et al. (2018) Disease Control Priorities: Improving Health and Reducing Poverty, World Bank: Washington DC.
- König, Michael and Adalbert Winkler, 2021, ‘The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth’, PLoS ONE 16(11): e0259362. doi. 10.1371/journal.pone.0259362
- Madhav, Nita, et al., 2017, ‘Pandemics: risks, impacts, and mitigation’, in: Disease Control Priorities: Improving Health and Reducing Poverty, 3rd edition, The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank: Washington DC, pp. 315–45.
- Marugg, Fintan and Tanja Schweinberger, 2021, The impact of social trust on Covid-19 measures in Europe, paper presented at the COVID-19 PHSMs Research Outcome Conference (October 2, 2021).
- Miller, Gay Y., and Katie Parent. "The economic impact of high consequence zoonotic pathogens: why preparing for these is a wicked problem." Journal of Reviews on Global Economics 1 (2012): 47-61.
- Morens, David M. and Anthony S. Fauci, 2007, ‘The 1918 influenza pandemic: insights for the 21st century’, The Journal of Infectious Diseases 195 (7), pp. 1018–28.
- Norman, Joseph, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2020, ‘Systemic risk of pandemic via novel pathogens–Coronavirus: A note’, New England Complex Systems Institute (2020). https://jwnorman.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Path.pdf.
- Politifact, 2020, ‘Are states in a bidding war over medical gear with the feds?’ https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/apr/01/are-states-bidding-war-over-medical-gear-feds/.
- Rasul, Imran, 2020, ‘The economics of viral outbreaks’, American Economic Review AEA Papers and Proceedings 110, pp. 265–8.
- Ritchie, Hanna et al., 2022, - "Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]
- Rowthorn, Robert, and Jan Maciejowski., 2020, "A cost–benefit analysis of the COVID-19 disease." Oxford Review of Economic Policy 36 Supplement 1 (2020): S38-S55.
- Salami, Kolawole, et al, 2020, ‘Meeting report: WHO consultation on accelerating Lassa fever vaccine development in endemic countries, Dakar, 10–11 September 2019’, Vaccine 38 (26), pp. 4135-4141.
- Saltman, Richard B, 2008, "Decentralization, re-centralization and future European health policy." European Journal of Public Health 18 (2), pp. 104-106.
- Sands, Peter, Anas El Turabi, Philip A. Saynisch, and Victor J. Dzau, 2016, ‘Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises’ The Lancet 388, no. 10058, pp. 2443-2448.
- Sathyamala, Christina, 2020, COVID-19: a biopolitical odyssey. ISS Working Paper No. 667, Erasmus University ISS: The Hague.
- Seyd, Ben and Bu Feifei, 2021, Perceived Risk Crowds out Trust? Trust and Public Compliance with Coronavirus Restrictions over the Course of the Pandemic, paper presented at the COVID-19 PHSMs Research Outcome Conference (October 2, 2021).
- Shami, Labib and Teddy Lazebnik, 2021, Financing and Managing Epidemiological-Economic Crisis: The Reserve Model, paper presented at ICEA After the pandemic – Public policy lessons conference. https://iceanet.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Shami.pdf
- Smith, Dominic, 2017, ‘Pandemic risk modelling’, The Palgrave Handbook of Unconventional Risk Transfer, Palgrave Macmillan: Cham, pp. 463–95.
- Stoffer, Friso and Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2021, Krimp tijdens de COVID-19 pandemie lijkt mee te vallen (Contraction during the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be not too bad; in Dutch), esb.nu. https://esb.nu/blog/20062797/krimp-tijdens-de-covid-19-pandemie-lijkt-mee-te-vallen
- Turner, David, Balázs Égert, Yvan Guillemette, and Jarmila Botev, 2021, "The tortoise and the hare: The race between vaccine rollout and new COVID variants." OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1672, OECD Publishing, Paris
- World Bank, 2014, The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic: Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa, World Bank Group, 2014.
- UNCTAD, 2014, World investment report, UN: New York.
- UNCTAD, 2021, Global Investment Trend Monitor, No. 39, https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/diaeiainf2021d2_en.pdf
- World Bank, 2021, COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens, Migration and Development Brief 35, https://www.knomad.org/sites/default/files/2021-11/Migration_Brief%2035_1.pdf
- World Health Organization, 2019, Pandemic Influenza Preparedness in WHO Member States: Report of a Member States Survey, World Health Organization: Geneva.
- Wyplosz, Charles, 2020, ‘The good thing about coronavirus’, in: Richard Baldwin and Beatrice Weder di Mauro (eds), 2020a, pp.113–5.