Abstracts
Résumé
Les probabilités subjectives ont un rôle central dans la prise de décision. Si les modèles théoriques et les données expérimentales sont relativement silencieux en économie sur la façon dont se forment ces croyances lors du processus décisionnel, il n’est pas de même en sciences cognitives. Nous proposons ici une revue de littérature de l’étude de la métacognition au travers de modèles computationnels de détection du signal. Cette méthodologie est ensuite importée à la décision non perceptive et nous montrons comment son utilisation ouvre de nouvelles pistes de recherche dans l’étude des croyances subjectives en économie expérimentale.
Appendices
Bibliographie
-
Bahrami, B., K. Olsen, D. Bang, A. Roepstorff, G. Rees et D. Frith (2012), « What Failure in Collective Decision-Making Tells us about Metacognition », Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 367 (1594) : 1350-1365.10.1098/rstb.2011.0420 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Bahrami, B., K. Olsen, P.E. Latham, A. Roepstorff, G. Rees et C.D. Frith (2010), « Optimally Interacting Minds », Science, 329 (5995) : 1081-1085.10.1126/science.1185718 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Baird, B., J. Smallwood, K.J. Gorgolewski et D.S. Margulies (2013), « Medial and Lateral Networks in Anterior Prefrontal Cortex Support Metacognitive Ability for Memory and Perception », Journal of Neuroscience, 33 : 16657-16665.10.1523/JNEUROSCI.0786-13.2013 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Bang, D., R. Fusaroli, K. Tylen, K. Olsen, P.E. Latham, J.Y.F. Lau, A. Roepstorff, G. Rees, C.D. Frith et B. Bahrami (2014), « Does Interaction Matter? Testing whether a Confidence Heuristic can Replace Interaction in Collective Decision-Making », Consciousness and Cognition, 26 : 13-23.10.1016/j.concog.2014.02.002 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Barett, A.B., Z. Dienes et A.K. Seth (2013), « Measures of Metacognition on Signal-Detection Theoretic Models », Psychological Methods, 18 (4) : 535-552.10.1037/a0033268 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Bogacz, R., E. Brown, J. Moehlis, P. Holmes et J.D. Cohen (2006), « The Physics of Optimal Decision Making: a Formal Analysis of Models of Performance in Two-Alternative Forced Choice Tasks », Psychological Review, 113 (4) : 700-765.10.1037/0033-295X.113.4.700 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Brier, G.W. (1950), « Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability », Monthly Weather Review, 78 (1) : 1-3.10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Busemeyer, J.R. et J.T. Townsend (1993), « Decision Field Theory: a Dynamic-Cognitive Approach to Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment », Psychological Review, 100 (3) : 432-459.10.1037/0033-295X.100.3.432 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Camerer, C. et D. Lovallo (1999), « Overconfidence and Excess Entry: an Experimental Approach », The American Economic Review, 89 (1) : 306-318.10.1257/aer.89.1.306 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Charles, L., F. Van Opstal, S. Marti et S. Dehaene (2013), « Distinct Brain Mechanisms for Conscious versus Subliminal Error Detection », NeuroImage, 73 : 80-94.10.1016/j.neuroimage.2013.01.054 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
David, A.S., N. Bedford, B. Wiffen et J. Gilleen (2012), « Failures of Metacognition and Lack of Insight in Neuropsychiatric Disorders », Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 367 (1594) : 1379-1390.10.1098/rstb.2012.0002 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Del Cul, A., S. Dehaene, P. Reyes, E. Bravo et A. Slachevsky (2009), « Causal Role of Prefrontal Cortex in the Threshold for Access to Consciousness », Brain, 132 (9) : 2531-2540.10.1093/brain/awp111 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
De Martino, B., S.M. Fleming, N. Garrett et R.J. Dolan (2013), « Confidence in Value-Based Choice », Nature Neuroscience, 16 (5787) : 105-110.10.3758/BF03196480 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Diederich, A. (2003), « MDFT Account of Decision Making under Time Pressure », Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 10 (1) : 157-166.10.3758/BF03196480 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Dienes Z. et A.K. Seth (2010), « Gambling on the Unconscious: a Comparison of Wagering and Confidence Ratings as Measures of Awareness in an Artificial Grammar Task », Consciousness and Cognition, 19 (2) : 674-681.10.1016/j.concog.2009.09.009 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Egan, J.P. (1975), Signal Detection Theory and ROC Analysis, New York, NY : Academic Press, 277 p.10.1257/jep.25.4.3 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Evans, S. et P. Azzopardi (2007), « Evaluation of a “Bias-Free” Measure of Awareness », Spatial Vision, 20 (1-2) : 61-77.10.1163/156856807779369742 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Fehr, E. et A. Rangel (2011), « Neuroeconomics Foundations of Economic Choices – Recent Advances », Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25 (4) : 3-30.10.1257/jep.25.4.3 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Fleming, S.M. et R.J. Dolan (2012), « The Neural Basis of Accurate Metacognition », Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 367 (1594) : 1338-1349.10.1098/rstb.2011.0417 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Fleming, S.M. et C. Frith (2014), The Cognitive Neuroscience of Metacognition, Springer-Verlag : Berlin, Heidelberg.10.1007/978-3-642-45190-4 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Fleming, S.M. et H.C. Lau (2014), « How to Measure Metacognition », Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 8 : 443, 2014.10.3389/fnhum.2014.00443 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Fleming, S.M., J. Ryu, J.G. Golfinos et K. Blackmon (2014), « A Domain-Specific Impairment in Metacognitive Accuracy Following Anterior Prefrontal Lesions », Brain, 137 (10) : 2811-2822.10.1093/brain/awu221 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Fleming, s.M., S. Massoni, t. Gajdos et j.-C. Vergnaud (2016), « Metacognition about the Past and Future: Quantifying Common and Distinct Influences on Prospective and Retrospective Judgments of Self-Performance », Neuroscience of Consciousness, 2016 (1) : niw018.10.1111/psyp.12039 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Fleming, S.M., R.S. Weil, Z. Nagy, R.J. Dolan et G. Rees (2010), « Relating Introspective Accuracy to Individual Differences in Brain Structure », Science, 329 (5998) : 1541-1543.10.1126/science.1191883 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Galvin, S.J., J.V. Podd, V. Drga et J. Whitmore (2003), « Type 2 Tasks in the Theory of Signal Detectability: Discrimination between Correct and Incorrect Decisions », Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 10 : 843-876.10.3758/BF03196546 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Garfinkel, S.N., A.B. Barrett, L. Minati, R.J. Dolan, A.K. Seth et H.D. Critchley (2013), « What the Heart Forgets: Cardiac Timing Influence Memory for Words and is Modulated by Metacognition and Introspective Sensitivity », Psychophysiology, 50 (6) : 505-512.10.1111/psyp.12039 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Gold, J.I. et M.N. Shadlen (2007), « The Neural Basis of Decision Making », Annual Review of Neuroscience, 30 : 535-574.10.1146/annurev.neuro.29.051605.113038 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Green, D. M. et J. A. Swets (1966), Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics, John Wiley and Sons.10.1126/science.1169405 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Harvey, N. (1997), « Confidence in Judgment », Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 1 (2) : 78-82.10.1016/S1364-6613(97)01014-0 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Hollard, G., S. Massoni et J.-C. Vergnaud (2016), « In Search of Good Probability Assessors: An Experimental Comparison of Elicitation Rules for Confidence Judgments », Theory and Decision, 80 (3) : 363-387.10.1007/s11238-015-9509-9 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Kepecs, A., N. Uchida, H. Zariwala et Z.F. Mainen (2008), « Neural Correlates, Computation and Behavioural Impact of Decision Confidence », Nature, 455 (7210) : 227-231.10.1038/nature07200 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Kiani, R. et M. Shalden (2009), « Representation of Confidence Associated with a Decision by Neurons in Parietal Cortex Knowledge: Some Calibration Studies », Science, 324 (5928) : 759-764.10.1126/science.1169405 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Koriat, A. (2012), « When are Two Heads Better than one and Why? », Science, 336 (6079) : 360-362.10.1126/science.1216549 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Krantz, D.H. (1969), « Threshold Theories of Signal Detection », Psychological Review, 76 (3) : 308-324.10.1037/h0027238 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Kunimoto, C., J. Miller et H. Pashler (2001), « Confidence and Accuracy of Near-Threshold Discrimination Responses », Consciousness and Cognition, 10 (3) : 294-340.10.1006/ccog.2000.0494 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Lee, T.G., R.S. Blumenfeld et M. D’Esposito (2013), « Disruption of Dorsolateral but not Ventrolateral Prefrontal Cortex Improves Unconscious Perceptual Memories », Journal of Neuroscience, 33 : 13233-13237.10.1523/JNEUROSCI.5652-12.2013 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Levitt, H. (1971), « Transformed Up-Down Methods in Psychoacoustics », Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 49 (2) : 467-477.10.1121/1.1912375 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Liberman, V. et A. Tversky (1993), « On the Evaluation of Probability Judgments: Calibration, Resolution, and Monotonicity », Psychological Bulletin, 114 : 162-173.10.1037/0033-2909.114.1.162 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Lichtenstein, S., B. Fischhoff et L. Phillips (1982), « Calibration of Probabilities: the State of the Art to 1980 », inD. Kahneman, P. Slovic et A. Tversky (éds), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristic and Biases, Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, p. 306-334.10.1017/CBO9780511809477.023 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Luce, R.D. (1959), Individual Choice Behavior: A Theoretical Analysis, New York, NY : Wiley.10.1016/j.concog.2014.08.006 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Luce, R.D. (1963), « Detection and Recognition », in R.D. Luce, R.R. Bush et E. Galenter (éds), Handbook of Mathematical Psychology, volume 1, New York, NY : Wiley, p. 103-189.10.1037/a0014876 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Luce, R.D. (1963), « A Threshold Theory for Simple Detection Experiments », Psychological Review, 70 (1) : 71-79.10.1037/h0039723 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Macmillan, N.A. et C.D. Creelman (2005), Detection Theory: A User’s Guide (2nd edition), Hove, UK : Psychology Press.10.1016/j.jmp.2010.08.011 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Maniscalco, B. et H. Lau (2012), « A Signal Detection Theoretic Approach for Estimating Metacognitive Sensitivity from Confidence Ratings », Consciousness and Cognition, 21 (1) : 422-430.10.1016/j.concog.2011.09.021 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Maniscalco, B. et H. Lau (2014), « Signal Detection Theory Analysis of Type 1 and Type 2 Data: Meta-d’, Response-Specific Meta-d’, and the Unequal Variance SDT Model », inS.M. Fleming et C. Frith (éds), The Cognitive Neuroscience of Metacognition, Springer : Berlin, Heidelberg, p. 25-66.10.1007/978-3-642-45190-4_3 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Massoni, S., T. Gajdos et J.-C. Vergnaud (2014), « Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory », Frontiers in Psychology, 5 : 1455.10.3389/fpsyg.2014.01455 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Massoni, S. et N. Roux (2014), « Optimal Group Decision: a Matter of Confidence Calibration », Mimeo.10.1037/0033-2909.95.1.109 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Massoni, S. (2013), Essays on Subjective Probabilities and Metacognition, thèse de doctorat, University of Paris 1.10.1146/annurev.neuro.051508.135550 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Massoni, S., « Emotion as a Boost to Metacognition: How Worry Enhances the Quality of Confidence », Consciousness and Cognition, 29 : 189-198.10.1016/j.concog.2014.08.006 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Masson, M.E.J. et C.M. Rotello (2009), « Sources of Bias in the GoodmanKruskal Gamma Coefficient Measure of Association: Implications for Studies of Metacognitive Processes », Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 35 : 509-527.10.1037/a0014876 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
McCurdy, L.Y., B. Maniscalco, J. Metcalfe, K.Y. Liu, F.P. de Lange et H. Lau (2013), « Anatomical Coupling Between Distinct Metacognitive Systems for Memory and Visual Perception », The Journal of Neuroscience, 33 (5) : 1897-1906.10.1523/JNEUROSCI.1890-12.2013 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Merkle, E.C., M. Smithson et J. Verkuilen (2011), « Hierarchical Models of Simple Mechanisms Underlying Confidence in Decision Making », Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 55 (1) : 57-67.10.1016/j.jmp.2010.08.011 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Metz, C.E. et X. Pan (1999), « Proper Binormal ROC Curves: Theory and MaximumLikelihood Estimation », Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 43 (1) : 1-33.10.1006/jmps.1998.1218 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Middlebrooks, P.G., Z. Abzug et M.A. Sommer (2014), « Studying Metacognitive Processes at the Single-Neuron Level », in Fleming, S.M. et C.D. Frith (éds), The Cognitive Neuroscience of Metacognition, Springer : Berlin, Heidelberg, p. 225-244.10.1007/978-3-642-45190-4_10 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Murphy, A.H. (1972), « Scalar and Vector Partitions of the Probability Score: Part I. Two-State Situation », Journal of Applied Meteorology, 11 : 273-282.10.1175/1520-0450(1972)011<0273:SAVPOT>2.0.CO;2 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Nelson, T.O. (1984), « A Comparison of Current Measures of the Accuracy of Feeling-of-Knowing Predictions », Psychological Bulletin, 95 : 109-133.10.1037/0033-2909.95.1.109 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Nieder, A. et S. Dehaene (2009), « Representation of Number in the Brain », Annual Review of Neuroscience, 32 (1) : 185-208.10.1146/annurev.neuro.051508.135550 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Overgaard, M. et K. Sandberg (2012), « Kinds of Access: Different Methods for Report Reveal Different Kinds of Metacognitive Access », Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 367 (1594) : 1287-1296.10.1098/rstb.2011.0425 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Piazza, M., V. Izard, P. Pinel, D. Le Bihan et S. Dehaene (2004), « Tuning Curves for Approximate Numerosity in the Human Intraparietal Sulcus », Neuron, 44 (3) : 547-555.10.1016/j.neuron.2004.10.014 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Pica, P., C. Lemer, V. Izard et S. Dehaene (2004), « Exact and Approximate Arithmetic in Amazonian Indigene Group », Science, 306 (5695) : 499-503.10.1126/science.1102085 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Pleskac, T.J. et J.R. Busemyer (2010), « Two-Stage Dynamic Signal Detection: A Theory of Choice, Decision Time, and Confidence », Psychological Review, 117 (3) : 864-901.10.1037/a0019737 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Ratcliff, R. et G. McKoon (2008), « The Diffusion Decision Model: Theory and Data for Two-Choice Decision Tasks », Neural Computation, 20 (4) : 873-922.10.1162/neco.2008.12-06-420 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Ratcliff, R. et J.J. Starns (2009), « Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory », Psychological Review, 116 (1) : 59-83.10.1037/a0014086 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Ratcliff, R. (1978), « A Theory of Memory Retrieval », Psychological Review, 85 (2) : 59-108.10.1037/0033-295X.85.2.59 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Rounis, E., B. Maniscalco, J.C. Rothwell, R.E. Passingham et H. Lau (2010), « Theta-Burst Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation to the Prefrontal Cortex Impairs Metacognitive Visual Awareness », Cognitive Neuroscience, 9 (8) : 165-175.10.1080/17588921003632529 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Savage, L.J. (1954), The Foundations of Statistics, New York, NY : John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Sorkin, R.D., C. J. Hays et R. West (2001), « Signal Detection Analysis of Group Decision Making », Psychological Review, 108 : 183-203.10.1037/0033-295X.108.1.183 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Summerfield, C. et K. Tsetsos (2012), « Building Bridges between Perceptual and Economic Decision-Making: Neural and Computational Mechanisms », Frontiers in Neuroscience, 6 (70) : 1-20.10.3389/fnins.2012.00070 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Wallsten, T.S. et D.V. Budescu (1983), « Encoding Subjective Probabilities: a Psychological and Psychometric Review », Management Science, 29 (2) : 151-173.10.1287/mnsc.29.2.151 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Wickens, T.D. (2002), Elementary Signal Detection Theory, New-York, NY : Oxford University Press.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Yaniv, I., F. Yates et K. Smith (1991), « Measures of Discrimination Skill in Probabilistic Judgment », Psychological Bulletin, 110 (3) : 611-617.10.1037/0033-2909.110.3.611 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Yates, J.F. (1982), « External Correspondence: Decompositions of the Mean Probability Score », Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 30 (1) : 132-156.10.1016/0030-5073(82)90237-9 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
-
Yeung, N. et C. Summerfield (2012), « Metacognition in Human Decision-Making; Confidence and Error Monitoring », Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 367 (1594) : 1310-1321.10.1098/rstb.2011.0416 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
