Abstracts
Résumé
Depuis le 1er janvier 2001, 12 pays participent à l’UEM. L’instauration de la monnaie unique constitue l’aboutissement d’un long processus de convergence. Le Système monétaire européen créé en 1979 visait déjà à établir une coopération monétaire plus étroite. Ensuite, les trois étapes préliminaires à la création de l’UEM ont accéléré le processus d’ajustement. Néanmoins, la question est de savoir s’il existe une convergence des préférences des banques centrales. Pour répondre à cette interrogation, cet article a pour objet d’estimer les fonctions de réaction des huit principales banques centrales nationales sur la période 1980-1998 mais aussi celle qui aurait représenté au mieux le comportement de la BCE si les pays avaient formé une union monétaire sur cette période. Les résultats nous permettent ainsi de comparer les comportements des banques centrales et mettent en évidence un processus de convergence de leurs préférences.
Abstract
Since January 1, 2001, twelve countries are taking part to the EMU. The introduction of the single currency is the result of a long process of convergence. The European Monetary System which was created in 1979 was already conceived in such a way that established a closer monetary cooperation between Member States. This adjustment process has been accelerated with the three preliminary stages to the creation of the EMU. Nevertheless, the question whether there is convergence of the central banks’ preferences or not still needs to be answered. In order to provide an answer to this interrogation, this paper presents the estimations of the functions of reaction of the eight main national central banks over the period 1980-1998. We also estimate the function of reaction which would have represented as best as possible the behaviour of the ECB if the countries had formed a monetary Union over this period. The results thus enable us to compare the behaviours of the central banks and allow us thereby to highlight a process of convergence of their preferences.
Appendices
Bibliographie
- Angeloni, I. et L. Dédola (1999), « From the ERM to the Euro: New Evidence on Economic and Policy Convergence Among EU Countries », Working Paper Series, n° 4, European Central Bank.10.2307/1910133 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Banque Centrale Européenne (1999), « Le rôle des indicateurs économiques à court terme dans l’analyse de l’évolution des prix au sein de la zone euro », Bulletin mensuel de la BCE, avril.10.1002/jae.629 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Bordes, C. (1997), « La politique monétaire », in G. Duthil et W. Marois, Politiques économiques, chap. 2, collection Ellipses, p. 71-162.10.1111/1468-0327.00028 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Chow, G. (1960), « Tests of the Equality between Two Sets of Coefficients on Two Linear Regressions », Econometrica, 28 : 561-605.10.2307/1910133 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Clarida, R., J. Gali et M. Gertler (1998), « Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence », European Economic Review, 42 : 1 033-1 067.10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00049-3 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Clarida, R. et M. Gertler (1997), « How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy », in C.D. Romer et D.H. Romer (éds), Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, NBER Studies in Business Cycles, vol. 30, University of Chicago Press, p. 363-406.10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00078-6 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Clausen, V. et B. Hayo (2002), « Asymmetric Monetary Policy Effects in EMU », Working Paper B04, Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung.10.1016/S0261-5606(99)00030-3 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Coenen, G. et J.-L. Vega (2001), « The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area », Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (6) : 727-748.10.1002/jae.629 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Debrun, X. et C. Wyplosz (1999), « Onze gouvernements et une Banque centrale », Revue d’économie politique, 109 (3) : 387-420.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Dornbusch, R., C.A. Favero et F. Giavazzi (1998), « Immediate Challenges for the European Central Bank », Economic Policy, 26 : 15-52.10.1111/1468-0327.00028 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- European Central Bank (2001), The Monetary Policy of the ECB, Francfort.10.1016/S0014-2921(98)00016-6 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Gerlach, S. et G. Schnabel (1999), « The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area: A Note », Bank for International Settlements, Working Paper, 73.10.3386/w5581 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Huchet, M. (2003), « Does Single Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Real Effects in EMU? », Journal of Policy Modeling, 25 (2) : 151-178.10.1016/S0161-8938(02)00204-1 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Mojon, B. et G. Peersman (2001), « A VAR Description of the Effects of Monetary Policy in the Individual Countries of the Euro Area », Working Paper No 92, European Central Bank.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Perron, P. (1997), « Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables », Journal of Econometrics, 80 : 355-385.10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00049-3 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Rudebusch, G. et L. Svensson (1998), « Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting », in J. Taylor (éd.), Monetary Policy Rules, Chicago University Press.10.2139/ssrn.856944 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Svensson, L. (2000), « Open-Economy Inflation Targeting », Journal of International Economics, 50 : 155-183.10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00078-6 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Taylor, J.B. (1998), « The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank », Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University.10.3386/w6512 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Uctum, M. (1999), « European Integration and Asymmetry in the EMS », Journal of International Money and Finance, 18 (5) : 769-798.10.1016/S0261-5606(99)00030-3 Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar
- Verdelhan, A. (1999), « Règle de Taylor », Bulletin de la Banque de France, 96 : 85-89.Google Scholar Search this bibliographic reference on Google Scholar